Here’s How The U.S. And Mexico Can Both Qualify For The World Cup By Tuesday

With four match days left in the final CONCACAF World Cup qualifying round, Mexico and the United States are on the brink of ensuring their inclusion in Russia next summer. Both could start booking accommodations by Tuesday if things fall their way. 

Mexico leads the group with 14 points and it would take a massive collapse for El Tri to fail to qualify. The U.S., in third with eight points, three back of Costa Rica and one ahead of Panama. The top three automatically qualify for the World Cup while the fourth-place team must play an Asian country in a playoff to reach Russia. 

Hex standings. Photo: @FtWorthVaqueros | Twitter

Each team in the hexagonal has two games in the coming week (Friday and Tuesday). The final two will be Oct. 6 and Oct. 10. The group stage draw for Russia will be held Dec. 1 in Moscow.

For Mexico, a win on Friday against Panama at the Azteca would just about be enough to schedule a trip to Moscow, unless Honduras was to win out and make up a massive goal differential, which is unlikely. A win followed by a draw at Costa Rica would clinch a berth in Russia. Really, just about anything Mexico does besides losing out would probably be enough to get to the World Cup.

The U.S., on the other hand, has more work to do thanks to two losses to start qualifying. A win on Friday against Costa Rica at Red Bull Arena would pull the Americans into second place, but it gets complicated as to whether or not the U.S. can qualify on Tuesday. Basically, the following must happen.

• The U.S. beats Costa Rica on Friday and Honduras on Tuesday. 
• Mexico beats Panama on Friday.
• Trinidad & Tobago ties Honduras on Friday.
• Trinidad & Tobago beats Panama on Tuesday.

If that exact scenario happens, both the U.S. and Mexico would be qualified by Tuesday evening and fans can start brushing up on their Russian. 

Although none of those things individually are impossible or even unlikely, we probably won’t see them all happen. More likely, Mexico does enough to qualify or get real darn close, the U.S. gets four or six points during this international break and needs another win in October. 

Even if the U.S. doesn’t clinch direct qualification, a win over Honduras all but assures a spot in the top four, even if the U.S. might have to go through Asia to get to Russia.