The start of major European leagues looms and fans are anxious to see how their teams fare on opening weekend. But how much does the first match even matter? After all, it's a long season and teams have plenty of time to rebound from week one losses. Or do they?
Looking at the statistics, it appears that the first game can set the tone for an entire season. It can either give a burst of confidence or present an omen of troubles ahead.
Don't believe us? Take a look. Below are the champions of European and North American leagues from the past five years and how they performed on their respective opening weekends over time. In Europe, anyways, the picture is pretty clear. Take home points in week one or face a slim chance (historically speaking) that you'll win the league. In North America, not so much.
Bundesliga – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions
Bayern Munich celebrate their 5th consecutive Bundesliga title. Photo: @isayushsingh | Twitter
2016-2017 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 6-0 win vs. Werder Bremen
2015-2016 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 5-0 win vs. Hamburger SV
2014-2015 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 2-1 win vs. VFL Wolfsburg
2013-2014 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 3-1 win vs. Borrusia Monchengladbach
2012-2013 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 3-0 win vs. Greuther Furth
La Liga – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions
Real Madrid, La Liga champions 2017. Photo: @nancycr7rma | Twitter
2016-2017 champion: Real Madrid. First game: 2-1 win vs. Celta Vigo
2015-2016 champion: Barcelona. First game: 1-0 win vs. Malaga
2014-2015 champion: Barcelona. First game. 1-0 win vs. Elche
2013-2014 champion: Barcelona. First game: 7-0 win vs. Levante
2012-2013 champion: Barcelona. First game: 5-1 win vs. Real Sociedad
Serie A – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions
Dybala and Higuain show off the 2017 Serie A trophy. Photo: @FanAnticsFC | Twitter
2016-2017 champion: Juventus. First game: 2-1 win vs. Fiorentina
2015-2016 champion: Juventus. First game: 1-2 loss vs. Udinese
2014-2015 champion: Juventus. First game: 1-0 win vs. Chievo
2013-2014 champion: Juventus. First game: 1-0 win vs. Sampdoria
2012-2013 champion: Juventus. First game: 2-0 win vs. Parma
Premier League – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions
Chelsea won the 2017 Premier League. Photo: @tipsterbobet | Twitter
2016-2017 champion: Chelsea. First game: 2-1 win vs. West Ham
2015-2016 champion: Leicester City. First game: 4-2 win vs. Sunderland
2014-2015 champion: Chelsea. First game: 3-1 win vs. Burnely
2013-2014 champion: Manchester City. First game: 4-0 win vs. Newcastle
2012-2013 champion: Manchester United. First game: 1-0 loss vs. Everton
Ligue 1 – Opening Week Performance Of Champions
AS Monaco, Ligue 1 champions 2017. Photo: @EPLSL | Twitter
2016-2017 champion: AS Monaco. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Guingamp
2015-2016 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 1-0 win vs. Lille
2014-2015 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Reims
2013-2014 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Montpellier
2012-2013 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Lorient
As a point of comparison, let's take a look at North American leagues that operate on a play-off system versus a double round-robin points system like the leagues above.
MLS – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions
The Seattle Sounders lifted their first ever MLS Cup last year. Photo: @RevistaDiezNY | Twitter
2016 champion: Seattle Sounders. First game: 0-1 loss vs. Sporting Kansas City
2015 champion: Portland Timbers. First game: 0-0 draw vs. Real Salt Lake
2014 champion: LA Galaxy. First game: 0-1 loss vs. Real Salt Lake
2013 champion: Sporting Kansas City. First game: 3-1 win vs. Philadelphia Union
2012 champion: LA Galaxy. First game 3-1 loss vs. Real Salt Lake
Liga MX – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions
Chivas were the 2017 Clausura winners. Photo: @ESPNDatos | Twitter
2017 Clausura champion: Guadalajara. First game: 2-1 win vs. Pumas
2016 Apertura champion: UANL. First game: 0-0 draw vs. Santos
2016 Clausura champion: Pachuca. First game: 1-1 draw vs. Tijuana
2015 Apertura champion: UANL. First game: 1-0 win vs. Toluca
2015 Clausura champion: Santos Laguna. First game: 2-1 loss vs. Veracruz.
2014 Apertura champion: America. First game: 2-1 win vs. Leon
Breaking It Down: Week One Results Versus Season Success
There are some interesting findings looking at these numbers:
1. For leagues that operate on a points system (i.e., major European leagues like Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A), it is critical to bring home points in the opening weekend in order to win the league. Only two teams in the last five years from across all major European leagues have lost on opening day (versus a win or a draw) and still managed to bring home the trophy. 92% of teams who went on to win the league in a given season won or drew in their opening matches. The two teams who managed to overcome these odds were Manchester United in 2012-2013 and Juventus in 2015-2016.
2. For every European league except Ligue 1, a win in week one is a better indicator of season success. 90% of teams who went on to win Bundesliga, La Liga, Premier League or Serie A in the past five years took home three points in their opening fixtures.
3. Ligue 1 has seen more than its fair share of draws from champions in their opening fixture. Go figure. Maybe it takes a while for the French to get going.
4. For leagues that use a play-off system (such as MLS and Liga MX), week one results don't matter nearly as much. In fact, in MLS only one in five of the past league champions won their week one fixture.
Given the above, fans of European clubs should keep a close eye on their teams in week one. If they lose, chances are good you can kiss the 2017-2018 league trophy goodbye.
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