What Are The Odds Of Newly Promoted Teams Staying In The Premier League?

With the 2016-17 Premier League season in the books, we now know what the league will look like next year. Relegated to the English Championship are Hull City, Middlesbrough and Sunderland. The three promoted sides include newcomers Brighton and Huddersfield and established EPL side Newcastle United.

It’s always difficult to predict how the promoted teams will fare in the league, but this article makes a strong attempt at those projections.

Since the 1995-96 season of the English Football Championship, when the playoff was implemented to promote a third team, 63 teams have gone up to the EPL. Here’s how they have fared:

Hey Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield, may the odds forever be in your favor: pic.twitter.com/8A0bvD9sgy

— The18 (@the18com) June 5, 2017

In short, it’s hard for clubs to establish themselves in the EPL. Sixty percent of teams head back down to the Championship within two seasons of promotion. There are many factors that the article examines that are helpful in forecasting how Newcastle, Brighton, and Huddersfield will perform next season.

What’s clear is that Huddersfield is in trouble. They’ve scored the second fewest goals of any promoted team in the sample. The ten teams promoted with the fewest goals since 1996 were all sent back down within two seasons. To make matters worse, Huddersfield don’t do a great job of preventing goals either. In fact, they’re the only team with a negative goal differential to have been promoted.

Brighton fans can be more optimistic as they totaled the most points (93) by a runner-up in the past twenty seasons. Still, first timers face an uphill battle. 11 of the 19 teams making their debut in the EPL were immediately relegated. If Brighton can survive its first season, history is on its side. Seven of the 19 newcomers lasted at least five years.

Finally, after a one-year stint in the Championship, Newcastle look like they’re getting ready for another extended run in the top flight. Their goal differential (+45) is ninth best among promoted teams in the sample. The teams with a top ten goal differential have had an average stay in the EPL of over six years, including current EPL teams West Brom, Manchester City and Bournemouth.

The projections for these clubs confirm what a casual fan might expect: Newcastle have a good shot at staying in the Premier League for several years, Brighton are primed to be in a relegation battle next spring, and, by that same time, Huddersfield will likely be making preparations for a return to the Championship.