With only a handful of games remaining across the top divisions in England, Spain, Germany and Italy, clear title favorites are beginning to emerge while pretenders are falling by the wayside. With the finest of margins separating this season’s elite, predicting the title winners in Europe’s top four leagues remains a tricky process.
Barcelona’s nine-point lead over Atletico Madrid represents the biggest domestic gap, while only three points separate Juventus from Napoli in Italy's Serie A. Borussia Dortmund continue to withstand a dominant Bayern Munich side in Germany, and in England, Leicester City, Tottenham and Arsenal still retain genuine title ambitions.
Here are our odds-on favorites for the title winners in Europe’s top four leagues.
Premier League
Leicester: 55%
Tottenham: 35%
Arsenal: 10%
Photo: @_SpursRelated | Twitter
Analysis: Although manager Claudio Ranieri is loath to admit it, Leicester City’s run at the top of the Premier League table has transformed them from plucky underdogs to odds-on favorites with only seven matches remaining.
Their run-in features four home matches at the King Power Stadium, where they’ve lost only one game all season. Their two biggest remaining tests will come against Manchester United, at Old Trafford, on May 1 and Chelsea away on the final day of the season.
While Manchester United will certainly be battling for a place in the UEFA Champions League, you’d imagine that Chelsea will have little to play for come May 15. Leicester City winning the Premier League over London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal would certainly lessen the blow of an awful title defense for Chelsea.
Tottenham trail Leicester by only five points with a possible 21 still to play for. Their superior goal difference works in their favor should the title race come down to such fine margins. Working against Tottenham is a difficult run-in including matches against Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Southampton.
Arsenal sit 11 points behind Leicester, albeit with a game in hand. Arsenal’s biggest remaining tests are West Ham and Manchester City, both away. Outside of those two matches, Arsenal could certainly collect the greatest number of points amongst the three title contenders over April and May.
However, they’ll need both Leicester and Tottenham to crumble under pressure if they’re to have any chance of winning their first Premier League title since the 2003/04 season.
La Liga
Barcelona: 70%
Atletico Madrid: 20%
Real Madrid: 10%
Photo: @yousef738
Analysis: Barcelona have opened up a nine point gap at the top of the La Liga table with only eight matches remaining. While the Blaugrana will also be focused on their Champions League quarterfinal matchup against Atletico Madrid, they could effectively seal the league title, or at least eliminate Real Madrid from contention, by defeating their rivals in Saturday’s El Clasico.
A victory for Real at the Camp Nou in Barcelona, while highly unexpected, would throw the title race wide open. However, if Barcelona are able to win their third El Clasico in a row, and fifth in six overall, expect both Real and Atletico to turn their collective attentions to the Champions League.
Serie A
Juventus: 54%
Napoli: 44%
Roma: 2%
Photo: @SirAlexStand | Twitter
Analysis: Juventus are undefeated over their last 19 Serie A matches. Written off early in the season as a club in crises, Juve now enjoy a three point lead over their nearest challengers, Napoli. Their painful elimination from the Champions League has only hardened their resolve to win a fifth straight Scudetto. Their toughest remaining matches are AC Milan and Fiorentina, both away.
Napoli remain hot on Juve’s heels, with Gonzalo Higuain’s 29 league goals representing the story of the Italian season. To replicate the heroics of his countryman Diego Maradona, he’ll need to continue scoring throughout a difficult run-in which includes matches against Roma, Inter Milan and Bologna.
Roma, sitting third, need a miracle. The 2000/01 season will ultimately mark the only time Francesco Totti was able to capture a Serie A title.
Bundesliga
Bayern Munich: 70%
Borussia Dortmund: 30%
Photo: @br_uk
Analysis: With seven matches remaining in the German top flight, Bayern Munich remain on course for their fourth straight Bundesliga crown. While the Bavarian giants must still face Hertha (3rd), Schalke (4th) and Monchengladbach (5th), as well as contest matches in both the Champions League and German Cup, it’s difficult to envision Bayern relinquishing a five point lead.
Borussia Dortmund are the unfortunate victims of Bayern’s domestic dominance. When Dortmund won the title in 2011, they collected 75 points in 34 matches. While they’ll certainly eclipse that point total this year, it still won’t be enough to top Bayern. Success in the Europa League, a tournament they’ve become the heavy favorites in, or the German Cup may represent their best chances for silverware this season.
