Historically speaking, things look pretty bleak for the five South American nations set to compete in Russia this summer. Over the history of the World Cup, the event has taken place in Europe 10 times. Collectively, if you break those tournaments down by how things finished, European nations have accounted for 34 of the 40 top four finishes (85%), leaving South America with only six success stories:
- France ’38: Brazil finished 3rd
- Switzerland ’54: Uruguay finished 4th
- Sweden ’58: Brazil won the World Cup
- West Germany ’74: Brazil finished 4th
- Italy ’90: Argentina finished 2nd
- France ’98: Brazil finished 2nd
As you can see, only Brazil has ever triumphed on European soil, and that was 60 years ago. At the last World Cup on European soil (Germany ’06), Europe swept the top four spots (the fourth time that’s happened). For whatever reason, the likes of Germany, Portugal, Belgium, France and Spain hold some intrinsic advantage before the July 15 final.
But maybe not.
As you’ve probably inferred, this is not a highly scientific study, and historicism is a lie created by those who need to feel a degree of control in the face of the overwhelming chaos of the cosmos.
Brazil has done it before and could certainly do it again. Argentina has Lionel Messi (but very little else). Both Colombia and Uruguay are exceptionally talented, and both are absolutely delighted with their respective draws. Everyone will be cheering for Peru, but let’s not get carried away here.
Edinson Cavani is a Golden Boot favorite. Photo: @BBCSportWales | Twitter
If you’re looking for a measuring stick regarding South America’s readiness for Russia, just take a look at the results from this current international window:
- March 23: Brazil 3 - 0 Russia
- March 23: Colombia 3 - 2 France
- March 23: Argentina 2 - 0 Italy
- March 23: Peru 2 - 0 Croatia
- March 23: Uruguay 2 - 0 Czech Republic
- March 26: Uruguay 1 - 0 Wales
That’s six straight victories for South America’s qualified nations over European nations. And for now, that means the World Cup is returning to CONMEBOL for the first time since 2002! Unless, of course, Tuesday sees Germany hammer Brazil, Spain trounce Argentina and Iceland thwack Peru in friendly play.
Then historicism returns to the status of godhead, and the FOX Sports soothsayers reign over us all.
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