So Germany won the Confederations Cup on Sunday. It’s exciting for the players and the fans always want to watch their team win, but what does it mean in the big picture?
More precisely: What does it mean for Germany's chances in the 2018 World Cup next summer?
The Confederations Cup, in its current format, has been played the summer before the World Cup prior to the last five four-year cycles.
The eight team tournament features some top teams (like the reigning World Cup winner and the champions of UEFA and CONMEBOL) and some not so top teams (New Zealand, anyone?). But no one has ever won the Confederations Cup and gone on to win the World Cup the following year.
Take France, for instance, which went into the 2002 World Cup on the back of winning the 1998 World Cup, the 2000 European Championship and the 2001 Confederations Cup. How’d they do in South Korea/Japan? They earned one point and finished last in Group A.
But success in the Confederations Cup doesn’t necessarily mean complete and utter failure the following summer. Brazil won in 1997 and reached the World Cup final in 1998, though to be fair anything but first place is considered a failure for Brazil.
In 2009, Spain finished third in the Confederations Cup, the lone tournament it didn’t win from 2008-2012, before claiming their only World Cup title in 2010.
In general, however, how well you perform in the Confederations Cup seems to have little bearing on how you do in the following World Cup, though I don’t think there’s enough data to claim there’s a curse.
Here’s a year-by-year analysis of the relations between the two tournaments.
1997/1998
Brazil won the 1997 Confederations Cup handily, 6-0 over Australia, and had a pretty good World Cup the following year. Brazil lost the ’98 final to host France 3-0. Brazil won the 1994 and 2002 World Cups, so this could be seen as a failure, but reaching the final of the World Cup isn’t that bad — unless, of course, you’re Brazil.
France did not participate in the Confederations Cup. The third and fourth-place teams in the Confederations Cup, Czech Republic and Uruguay, respectively, did not qualify for the 1998 World Cup.
2001/2002
As mentioned above, France won the 2001 Confederations Cup, along with the 1998 World Cup and 2000 Euros. One might expect that team to find some success at the 2002 World Cup, but the French flamed out without a win.
France went winless at the 2002 World Cup including this shocking loss to Senegal. Photo: @mandion_laye | Twitter
Brazil, which won the 2002 World Cup, finished fourth at the 2001 CC. Japan, which was runner-up in the preceding CC, reached the Round of 16 for the first time ever at the ’02 World Cup.
2005/2006
Brazil beat Argentina 4-1 for the CC title and had its worst World Cup in 16 years the following year in Germany. Both Brazil and Argentina were knocked out in the quarterfinals of the 2006 World Cup.
Italy beat France in the epic 2006 final, but neither team competed at the CC the year before. Germany, which finished third in 2005, was third in 2006.
2009/2010
Another Brazil win, this a 3-2 comeback over the U.S., again foreshadowed a poor showing at the World Cup, going out in the quarterfinals. The U.S. won its group but lost in the Round of 16.
Despite a stunning loss to the U.S. in the semifinals, Spain bounced back to beat South Africa in the third-place game. The two had opposite trajectories in the ensuing World Cup: Spain won its first world championship while South Africa became the first host nation to fail to escape the group stage.
2013/2014
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Brazil won the Confederations Cup in 2013 too, 3-0 over Spain. The top four (including Italy and Uruguay) at this Confederations Cup all had horrible 2014 World Cups.
Reactions from Brazil’s 7-1 loss to Germany. Photo: @SachinSenapati | Twitter
Brazil was slaughtered 7-1 by Germany in the semifinals and Spain and Italy both failed to get out of their groups. Uruguay was stopped in the Round of 16.
Conclusion
So what does it all mean?
There have only been five tournaments to draw from, so it’s difficult to make definitive conclusions, especially when Brazil won four of the five Confederations Cups examined.
Brazil, despite owning a record five World Cup championships, has yet to follow up CC success with a world title.
Only eight nations have won the World Cup while four countries (Brazil x4, France x2, Mexico and now Germany) have won the Confederations Cup.
In terms of probability, one should assume a Confederations Cup winner will win the following World Cup eventually, if not soon.
Germany was able to win the Confederations Cup without its A team, which should scare everyone else in the world. Next year, with the young guns (some who helped win the CC, some who helped win the U-21 Euros) joining the established stars like Mesut Ozil and Manuel Neuer, Germany will be a heavy favorite to win it all in Russia.
No one has won the World Cup after winning the Confederations Cup. But then again, no European team had won a World Cup in South America until the Germans won in 2014 in Brazil.
Count Germany out at your own peril.
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