Following the end of the EFL Championship season over the weekend, we can now turn our attention to arguably the biggest spectacle in the Football League: the Championship Promotion Playoffs, as the third through sixth place teams battle for one spot in the Premier League.
Brentford and its electric attack, led by record scorer Ivan Toney, will be the favorites to win the playoffs. But considering that only one of the last five third-place finishers have won promotion through the playoff route, plus the fact that Brentford has not won any of the nine promotion playoffs it has been a part of, the gap between the rest of the field is considerably closer than it seems.
Bournemouth has plenty of Premier League quality in its squad, and despite losing its last three matches, the Cherries have proven they are more than capable of earning promotion.
In Wales, Swansea, which boasts a solid side built around the spectacular André Ayew, is back in the playoffs for the second consecutive season and hungry to return to the EPL.
Then there is Barnsley, maybe the most unexpected playoff side in recent memory. A gritty side built around an excellent back three, the loan acquisition of Daryl Dike has transformed them into a dangerous opponent. The Tykes will be the real wild card in the playoffs.
All four sides have clearly been a cut above the rest of the league — especially in the second half of the campaign — but which one will be joining Norwich City and Watford in the top flight next season?
What a season!#EFL | #SkyBetChampionship pic.twitter.com/NWlzbfdRK2
— Sky Bet Championship (@SkyBetChamp) May 8, 2021
Championship Playoffs Schedule
First Leg: Monday, May 17
Brentford at Bournemouth
Swansea at Barnsley
Second Leg: Saturday, May 22
Bournemouth at Brentford
Barnsley at Swansea
Promotion Final: Saturday, May 29
Analysis of Playoff Teams
Brentford
Key Players: Ivan Toney (ST: 30 goals, 10 assists), Bryan Mbeumo (RW: 8 goals, 10 assists), Ethan Pinnock (CB: Played seven seasons at the non-league level before his Football League debut), Josh Dasilva (CM: Directly involved in 23 goals since 2019)
Record vs Other Playoff Sides: 3 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws
The Bees earned 87 points this season, a total that would have seen them promoted last year. They were also projected to finish first in the league based on their expected goals performance this year (by a full 13 points too). Instead, Brentford had to settle for third and must navigate the playoffs once again. Can their heartbreak from last year fuel promotion success this May?
Two thirds of their prolific front three from last season have moved on to the Premier League, but the club's attack has been as good — if not better — this year. Bryan Mbeumo has been a stud once again on the wing, and new striker Ivan Toney has surpassed all expectations, setting a league record with 30 goals while also chipping in 10 assists. Veteran center back Winston Reid was also brought in on loan to provide some much needed depth and experience in the backline.
As they were last year, the Bees will once again be promotion favorites in the playoffs, but can they deal with the pressure? Last year, defeats in the club's final two matches dropped it from the automatic promotion spots, and the pattern continued this season, as six draws in their last nine matches cost Brentford a shot at the top two. Will the Bees' talent finally pull through?
Swansea
Key Players: André Ayew (ST: 16 goals, 4 assists), Jamal Lowe (ST: 14 goals), Matt Grimes (CM: Missed just two games over the past three seasons), Ben Cabango (CB: Made his Swansea debut at age 19)
Record vs Other Playoff Sides: 2-1-3
Welcome back Swansea! The Swans are returning to the playoffs for the second season in a row with nearly an identical squad to last year. This year's squad is still built around the talismanic talent that is André Ayew, but the current team is much better defensively than it was last season. The Swans allow just 0.8 goals/game, better than the three other playoff sides and a third of a goal per game improvement from 2019-20.
In the midfield, Swansea might not have the same big names that populate the center of the pitch for Bournemouth, but Matt Grimes and Connor Roberts are workhorses that cover the entire pitch, and Conor Hourihane, on loan from Aston Villa, has provided a bit of quality in the second half of the season — contributing five goals and two assists since joining in January.
While Swansea sits fifth in the league table, advanced analytics don't have a favorable view of the Swans. According to expected goals (xG), Swansea should be in 13th place. The Swans are also the only playoff team that would be outside the top 6 based on xG. The club has also struggled recently. A four-match losing streak last month caused manager Steve Cooper to switch away from back three he had used the entire season, but the Swans have won just twice in seven matches since that switch.
Barnsley
Key Players: Daryl Dike (ST: 9 goals), Alex Mowatt (CM: Player of the Month in March), Michal Helik (CB: Highest-rated defender in the league, per WhoScored?), Mads Juel Andersen (CB: 2nd in the league in interceptions)
Record vs Other Playoff Sides: 2-4-0
The Tykes are currently the hottest team in the Championship, with 13 wins in their last 18 matches, but not long ago, this was a team that: needed two separate injury time winners to avoid relegation in 19-20, was winless after seven matches this season and sitting in 17th three months into the campaign. While the arrival of Daryl Dike (nine goals in 17 games) certainly has helped, perhaps a front-loaded schedule was a bigger difference maker for Barnsley.During the club's revival, just three of its 17 opponents were in the top third of the table.
Despite the favorable schedule, this team is for real, as expected goals puts Barnsley in fourth place. Daryl Dike is obviously the main focus, but Barnsley is a gritty, defensive side built around its back three. The defensive duo of Michal Helik and Mads Juel Andersen might be the best in the league, and at 6-3 and 6-4 respectively, there is not much that gets past this pair. The move of the hard-tackling Callum Styles from central midfield to left wingback has been hugely profitable, as Styles' four goals and three assists are both career highs.
The addition of Dike has finally given the Tykes a legitimate offensive threat . The American striker has increased Barnsley's xG output by 0.3 goals/match since his arrival, and when you combine that with the second-best defense in the league based on xG allowed, you have a very dangerous side — regardless of the quality it may have (or not have) on paper.
Bournemouth
Key Players: Arnaut Danjuma (LW: 15 goals, 7 assists), Dominic Solanke (ST: 15 goals, 8 assists), Jefferson Lerma (CM: 18 caps for Colombia), Asmir Begovic (GK: best clean sheet % of his career in 20/21)
Record vs Other Playoff Sides: 2-3-1
With the other two Premier League sides relegated in 19-20 already earning automatic promotion back in the promised land, Bournemouth will hope to make it a perfect 3/3. The Cherries had a couple of key departures over the summer, as defender Nathan Aké and striker Callum Wilson both joined Premier League clubs, but this is still a very talented Bournemouth squad that maintained much of its EPL core.
Danjuma and Solanke have contributed to more than 60 percent of Bournemouth's league goals, but the key to this side is its midfield. Philip Billing and Jefferson Lerma are an international quality central midfield pairing that is tireless on both sides of the ball. Bournemouth also has the luxury of adding in former Arsenal man Jack Wilshire or the aggressive but equally talented Ben Pearson to complete the midfield trio — which may be the best in the league even without the injured Lewis Cook.
Bournemouth has a strong squad with a balance of young talent and experienced Premier League veterans, and the team's composure has helped it weather a bumpy mid-season stretch stay in a playoff spot for almost the entire campaign. Brentford will be the favorite, but don't discount the Cherries.
