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What does the USMNT need to qualify for Copa América knockout rounds? Here are all the scenarios

The U.S. men’s national team is in need of that signature win under Gregg Berhalter.

Thursday’s 2-1 loss against Panama in the second match day of the 2024 Copa América has put the USMNT into hot waters, leaving the national team’s hopes of qualifying to the next round in the dark.

Following the defeat against the canaleros and the lost opportunity of going into the last group stage match with a punched ticket to the knockout rounds, the USMNT have no choice but to look for a big win against one of the tournament’s top contender: the 15-time Copa América champion Uruguay.

As things stand, the USA are second in Group C with three points, behind first-placed Uruguay with six points and tied with Panama — only ahead of the Central Americans on goal difference. Bolivia trail fourth with zero points and a negative seven goal difference.

The last match day will see Panama face off against Bolivia and the United States meeting up against Uruguay (practically qualified for the next round), with the second-placed finish being up for grabs between the Concacaf colleagues.

What does USMNT need to qualify for Copa América knockout rounds? Here are all the scenarios

USMNT win against Uruguay: 

They will qualify for the knockout stage as long as Panama draw or lose. A Panama win will push the tiebreaker to goal difference. The USMNT currently have a two-goal advantage but would have to hope Panama does not finish with more goals scored.

(i.e. if the USMNT win 1-0, Panama would have to win 3-0)

USMNT draw against Uruguay: 

They will only advance if Panama draw or lose, with the tie at four points being decided by the USMNT’s goal difference advantage.

USMNT lose against Uruguay: 

They will only advance with a Panama loss and if they finish with a better goal difference than Panama. 

(i.e. if the USMNT lose 4-0 and Panama lose 1-0, Panama advance)

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2024 Copa América tiebreakers

If the USMNT and Panama are level on points and on goal difference following the end of the group stage, other tie breaking criteria would come into play. This is how Copa América’s tiebreakers would rule who advances:

  • The team with the greater number of goals scored in the group stage
  • Head-to-head between the two teams who are tied (Panama defeated the United States)
  • Fewer red cards
  • Fewer yellow cards
  • Drawing of lots

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