The Mexican Men’s National Team begins its Copa America campaign on Friday, June 12th against Bolivia. Not to write off the chances of Bolivia pulling off a dramatic win, but it’s a match that Mexico arguably should win. “El Verde” has only made it out of the group stage 2 times out of 14 tournaments dating back to 1975. With the lack of a quality opponent in the first match of the tournament, Mexico has a great chance to build momentum and form that can prove to be game-changers in the later stages of the competition. At the same time though, it could mask weaknesses in Mexico's 2nd tier team. But before we get started on Mexico’s chances of progressing through the tournament, how is Miguel “El Piojo” Herrera preparing his “guerreros” for the insurmountable challenge that awaits them in the South American tournament? Are they up to the challenge?
Pre-Copa America Matches
Miguel Herrera has a busy schedule ahead of him. With a summer chock-full of competitive matches for Mexico, the Head Coach must be wiping sweat off his brow as we speak. Mexico have already started preparations ahead of their Copa America campaign kickoff match against Bolivia. They have already played all three of their pre-tournament friendlies, winning against Guatemala, tieing Peru, and losing against Brazil. How have they fared? Not bad, not bad at all, but they still have a lot of work to do.
Mexico vs. Guatemala
3-0 in favor of Mexico was the scoreline against Guatemala. With El Tri’s Eduardo Herrera continuing his great form. The Puma’s forward now has 3 goals in 3 matches and will want to see that form continue into the Copa America. Jesus “Tecatito” Corona scored the only other goal in what was a straight-forward match for Mexico. A few things to note from that match.
- Rafa Marquez had yet to join El Tri, with El Kaiser de Michoacan still having defensive duties for Hellas Verona in Seria A. His leadership and experience will be vital to an El Tri side full of inexperienced players that will have to deal with a lot against South America’s best.
- Even though Mexico won the match, they will need to prove themselves against a stronger side before the Copa America.
- This was a great way to bounce back from the disappointing 2-0 loss to the United States, and a lot of it had to do with Eduardo Herrera’s performance. The newcomer to El Tri is showing El Piojo how deserving he is of the opportunity to put on the famous shirt.
Mexico vs. Peru
The match against Peru wasn’t as positive for Mexico. Even with Rafa Marquez joining the national team, the result was an unexpected draw. Peru usually aren’t a tough side to face, but this match served as good reminder to Mexico of the work they have to do prior to the Copa, and that they can’t underestimate any side. The match, held in Lima, Peru gave Miguel Herrera the opportunity to meddle with his starting 11. Herrera has been fielding both his potential starters for the Copa but also giving opportunities to players who haven’t convinced so far. The match ended 1-1 as Peru held Mexico at home, with Mexico needing to be saved by Juan Carlos Valenzuela, the defender scored the equalizer for Mexico.
A few takeaways from the match.
- Raul Jimenez has so far been outshone by Eduardo Herrera’s unexpected brilliance as a striking option. He was given the opportunity to start ahead of Herrera but he did not make the most of it. Will El Piojo field both Jimenez and Herrera at the same time? He hasn’t so far in the two friendly matches prior to the copa. The manager usually utilizes two strikers in his starting lineup, but has Jimenez done enough to convince him? The Atletico Madrid striker hasn’t had many opportunities to show his worth, but a year with Atletico has many fans hoping to see him do well for Mexico.
- Even though Mexico tied against Peru, El Piojo truly believes it was good experience prior to the start of the Copa America for Mexico. “They pressed us well, but these are the games that make us strong,” he said after the match. I agree, Mexico needed to face a team that forced them to switch into gear.
- Mexico has 4 European-based players in the Copa America squad, they are: Javier Aquino, Rafa Marquez, Raul Jimenez, and Jesus “Tecatito” Corona. Of the four, 3 started the match against Peru. Tecatito scored in the last match against Guatemala and has already proven his worth to the team. He’s an exciting player and arguably one of the best Mexico can field in the Copa America. The other 3 need to step it up and show their worth. Rafa just came back from Hellas Verona and hasn’t had much time to gel with the rest of the group, but Jimenez and Aquino need to be more influential. They both need good performances this Summer if they want their club situations to better.
Mexico vs. Brazil
Mexico came into this match as they usually do against Brazil: as the underdogs. Brazil are always one of the very best teams in the world, and the team they fielded against Mexico lived up to that billing. Coutinho, Willian, David Luiz, Fernandinho and Filipe Luis are all world class footballers, and they were too much for Mexico, who lost 2-0 on the day.
Some takeaways:
- Mexico couldn’t score when it was on top. Mexico actually dominated the opening minutes of the match so thoroughly that Brazil was being booed by its home crowd. Domination means little when the ball never goes in the back of the net, however, and Mexico would not score while it was on top, or for the rest of the match.
- Phillipe Coutinho’s golazo broke Mexico. It was a great goal that put the Brazilians over the top, one that any player would be proud of. Once he scored it, Mexico never got itself back in the game.
Group Stage Analysis
In terms of how the group stage looks for El Tri, it’s all in their control. They have the ability and talent to make it through the group stage and book a place in the quarterfinals. El Tri is in Group A with Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Of the 3 other teams, Chile are the ones that will trouble El Tri the most. Alexis Sanchez is coming off a great season with Arsenal and will surely be one of the best players of the Copa America tournament. Juve’s Arturo Vidal will also be another player that will make Chile tick and will be hard to handle for El Tri. How will El Tri cope with both of those star players and the rest of the Chilean side? El Tri should be able to get wins against Bolivia and Ecuador. Those two matches will be crucial for El Tri, especially if they can’t get a win against Chile. I predict that they will make it out of the group stage and book a place in the quarterfinals. I wouldn’t say they’ll make it out in 1st place of Group A, that will be dependent on the Mexico vs. Chile result. If anything, they’ll make it out of Group A in 2nd place, right behind Chile, with Ecuador in 3rd and Bolivia in 4th.
Mexico can make it out of Group A. Photo: @PodcastTBG | Twitter
How far will Mexico go?
It’ll be in Mexico’s best interest to win Group A. The winner of Group A will avoid a Group runner-up and will instead face one of the 3rd best performers of the groups. If Mexico wins Group A, their chances of continuing to the semifinals will greatly increase. If they win Group A, their potential opponents could be: another match against Ecuador (predicted 3rd place team), Group B’s Paraguay (predicted 3rd place team), or Group C’s Peru (predicted 3rd place team). They would avoid heavy-hitters Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, and Argentina. Most likely taking them on in the semi’s. If they win their quarterfinal match, they’ll most likely face Chile or Colombia in the semi’s. Tough matches, but matches where Mexico can pull of a surprise and end up in the final. If they don’t win Group A and come in 2nd, they would face the runner-up of Group C, who most likely will be James Rodriguez’s Colombia. A daunting match that might not end well for El Tri. It all comes down to how much they want to win in this tournament.
What can we deem as success for El Tri?
For El Piojo and Co., the Mexican Federation has set an attainable goal: reach the semifinals of the Copa America. That is what is deemed as success for El Tri. As I mentioned above, they can make it out of the Group Stage. The quarterfinals will be an interesting affair but regardless, facing Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, or Ecuador in that stage will give Mexico every chance of making it to the semi’s. We should not expect less from Miguel Herrera’s team. I don’t know if they can win the tournament but reaching the semi’s will show the depth of Mexican talent at Herrera’s disposal. El Tri will be able to come home proud of their efforts in the tournament and confidence will be boosted for their Gold Cup run, even for their players not competing at the Copa America. Si se puede. At least, Miguel Herrera believes so. “This group is put together to reach the final," said Herrera, dismissing the idea that Mexico's Copa America squad is a "B" team. "We'll give a few teams a scare and we'll be a different team than we were in the last edition."
Predicted Copa America Starting lineup:
Goalkeeper: Jesus Corona
Defender: Rafa Marquez
Defender: Juan Valenzuela
Defender: Hugo Ayala
Defender: Carlos Salcedo
Defender: Gerardo Flores
Midfielder: Jesus “Tecatito” Corona
Midfielder: Marco Fabian
Midfielder: Javier Aquino
Forward: Eduardo Herrera
Forward: Raul Jimenez
Three Key Players:
Rafa Marquez: For his leadership and experience in the defense.
Jesus “Tecatito” Corona: His skill and dynamism in midfield
Eduardo Herrera: His consistency in front of goal.
